Are We There Yet?

Martin Lawrence House - Are We There Yet?

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The National Bureau of Economic research (Nber) is the society responsible for calling a recession, "a recession". They settle when a recession begins based on their definition:

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Martin Lawrence House

"A recession is a critical decline in economic performance spread across the economy, continuing more than a few months, normally descriptive in real [inflation-adjusted] Gdp [gross domestic product], real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."The last time Nber's business Cycle Dating Committee called a recessionary duration was in 2001, for the 8-month duration starting March 2001 and ending November 2001. The March 2001 peak was announced November 26, 2001 (start of recession) while the November 2001 trough (end of recession) was announced July 17, 2003.

The Cbo, in their January 2008 description Options for Responding to Short-Term Economic frailness indicate five economists, "Richard Berner (Morgan Stanley), Martin Feldstein (Harvard University), William Gross (Pimco), Robert Shiller (Yale University) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University) have all stated that the probability of a recession this year is greater than 50 percent."

All too often the media is full of reports about how this or that economist missed the boat on a forecast, but we will give these guys the advantage of the doubt and agree that we will probably have a recession this year.

Although a recession will not be called until 'after the fact' our economy is now operating in slow motion, so now what?

The Federal keep has been taking bold actions to keep the economy running on an even keel, but even the Big Bank may not be able to stop the tsunami caused by the subprime mortgage mess. There are still 1.7 million subprime Arms that will reset in 2008 and 2009.

Many of the 2008 presidential hopefuls have put together assorted stimulus packages. Either or not a stimulus box is needed to jump-start the economy has pretty much been answered, while the remaining request becomes what type of stimulus box will best serve our failing economy.

Three questions must be answered when seeing at the assorted proposals: 1. Are they cost effective? 2. Are they timely - do they supply a quick fix to the economy? and 3. How sure are we of the end result?

The Cbo has listed nine possibilities and prepared a chart (page 20) indicating the pros and cons of each as follows: 1. Lump-Sum Rebate, 2. Temporary Tax Reduction, 3. Deferring or Eliminating Scheduled Tax Increases, 4. Cut in Corporate Tax Rates, 5. Incentives for New Investment, 6. Extending Operating Loss and Carryback Provision, 7. Direct replacement Payments to Households, 8. Providing normal Aid to State and Local Governments and 9. Investing in group Works Project.

Deciding what to do should not be complex if you look at the prior stimulus packages put into place during the Bush management - they did not work, so obviously a different arrival is needed. Providing tax cuts to the rich and tax and speculation incentives to big business, just did not supply the goals sought - unless the goal was to bankrupt the rest of us.

A narrate of the buyer Price Index, Cpi, description issued January 16, 2008 could supply an exquisite case for directing the brunt of a new stimulus box to those needing it most, the poor and middle class. The increases in basic necessities over the past year; food, energy and curative costs has impacted all of us, but has been especially detrimental to the poor and middle class.

Nearly all the indicators have gone up considerably in the 12-months ended December 2007 v. The 12-months ended December 2006, with energy commodities having the biggest increase at 29.4%, followed by energy at 17.4%, communication 8.3%, curative Care 5.2%, Food and Beverages 4.8%, energy Services 3.4%, Other Goods and Services, 3.0%, Housing and instruction at 3.0% each, Recreation at .8% and Apparel at -.3%.

The percentages indicated above are a sum of all items within a particular index. Some increases in the food and beverage group over the past year are milk up 19.3%, cheese up 13.0%, cereal up 5.4%, bread up 10.5%, fruits and vegetables up 5.9%, and meats, poultry, fish and eggs up 5.4%.

Maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me that eating, staying warm and being able to afford curative care when critical should not be a luxury in this country, but that appears to be the direction we are heading.

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